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樓市調控不見放松,年末資金再度趨緊

發布日期:2017/9/5 10:43:09  瀏覽量:13  字號:[  ]
(1央行(xing)(xing)(xing)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)19日(ri)公(gong)布(bu)(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示,11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen),我國(guo)(guo)(guo)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)外(wai)匯占款(kuan)(kuan)為-279億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),連續兩個(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)負(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),顯(xian)示出(chu)資(zi)金(jin)凈(jing)流出(chu)壓力(li)(li)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)。業(ye)(ye)(ye)內分(fen)析人士預計(ji),這種情況可(ke)能(neng)(neng)還會持續,為了(le)補充市場流動性,存款(kuan)(kuan)準(zhun)(zhun)備金(jin)率(lv)仍有(you)下(xia)(xia)調(diao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)。(2今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)1~11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen),中(zhong)央企業(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)經(jing)營總體(ti)上(shang)保持平穩較(jiao)(jiao)快增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),企業(ye)(ye)(ye)累計(ji)實(shi)現營業(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入18.4萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)22.6%;實(shi)現凈(jing)利潤(run)8317.9億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.6%。(3據(ju)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際鋼鐵協會12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)公(gong)布(bu)(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示,11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)全(quan)球(qiu)鋼廠產(chan)能(neng)(neng)利用(yong)率(lv)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)至兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最低(di)水平,因受歐(ou)洲(zhou)債務危機的(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響經(jing)濟成(cheng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)前(qian)景憂慮,消費(fei)商削減(jian)庫(ku)存水平。數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示,11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)鋼廠產(chan)能(neng)(neng)利用(yong)率(lv)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)至73.4%,較(jiao)(jiao)10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)下(xia)(xia)滑(hua)2.8%,較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)2.6%。但全(quan)球(qiu)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)粗(cu)鋼產(chan)量(liang)(liang)仍同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)上(shang)漲1.1%,至1.16億(yi)(yi)(yi)噸(dun)(dun)。11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)粗(cu)鋼產(chan)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)0.2%,至4990萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)為全(quan)球(qiu)******的(de)(de)(de)(de)鋼鐵生(sheng)產(chan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)和消費(fei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)。(4上(shang)海(hai)市政府發(fa)布(bu)(bu)消息稱(cheng),明年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)將繼(ji)續加(jia)大(da)房(fang)地(di)(di)(di)(di)產(chan)調(diao)控(kong)力(li)(li)度(du),繼(ji)續執(zhi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)住(zhu)房(fang)限購政策。成(cheng)為繼(ji)北(bei)京之后第二個(ge)(ge)明確(que)表態的(de)(de)(de)(de)一線(xian)城市。北(bei)京、上(shang)海(hai)作(zuo)為調(diao)控(kong)政策執(zhi)行(xing)(xing)(xing)力(li)(li)度(du)******的(de)(de)(de)(de)城市,房(fang)價(jia)下(xia)(xia)調(diao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)項目和幅度(du)也(ye)領先全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo),目前(qian)來(lai)(lai)看拐點(dian)(dian)已經(jing)明顯(xian)出(chu)現。(5國(guo)(guo)(guo)土(tu)資(zi)源部12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)發(fa)布(bu)(bu)了(le)《閑置(zhi)(zhi)土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)處置(zhi)(zhi)辦法(修訂草案》公(gong)開征(zheng)求意見的(de)(de)(de)(de)通(tong)知。通(tong)知稱(cheng)土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)閑置(zhi)(zhi)滿1年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de),經(jing)批準(zhun)(zhun)后可(ke)按土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)出(chu)讓或者(zhe)劃撥土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)價(jia)款(kuan)(kuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)20%征(zheng)繳土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)閑置(zhi)(zhi)費(fei);未動工(gong)(gong)開發(fa)建設(she),土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)閑置(zhi)(zhi)滿2年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de),經(jing)批準(zhun)(zhun)后可(ke)無償收(shou)回土(tu)地(di)(di)(di)(di)使用(yong)權。(612月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)以后,四大(da)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)信貸投(tou)放(fang)突然(ran)發(fa)力(li)(li)。12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)前(qian)十天,四大(da)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)貸款(kuan)(kuan)僅(jin)在300億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)左右。而12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)11~15日(ri),四大(da)商業(ye)(ye)(ye)銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)信貸投(tou)放(fang)超過400億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan),超過前(qian)十天的(de)(de)(de)(de)總和。市場人士預計(ji),12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)貸款(kuan)(kuan)規模達5500億(yi)(yi)(yi)~6000億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概率(lv)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da),全(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)貸款(kuan)(kuan)有(you)望接近7.5萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。(7記(ji)者(zhe)從(cong)12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)在京舉行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)環境保護(hu)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)會議上(shang)獲悉,明年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)污染(ran)減(jian)排(pai)任務已經(jing)確(que)定:與今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)相(xiang)比(bi),二氧化硫(liu)、化學需(xu)氧量(liang)(liang)排(pai)放(fang)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別(bie)減(jian)少(shao)2%,氨氮排(pai)放(fang)量(liang)(liang)減(jian)少(shao)1.5%,氮氧化物排(pai)放(fang)量(liang)(liang)為零增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。(8今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)11個(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue),我國(guo)(guo)(guo)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)累計(ji)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為11.85%,其中(zhong)11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)9.9%,比(bi)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)快速(su)回落(luo)了(le)1.5個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian),環比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)1%,增(zeng)(zeng)幅比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)低(di)1.3個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。其中(zhong),11月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)重工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)10.6%,增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比(bi)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)大(da)幅回落(luo)了(le)3.5個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。從(cong)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)占比(bi)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)(de)化工(gong)(gong)、建材(cai)、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉、有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉四大(da)重點(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)來(lai)(lai)看,今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)前(qian)11個(ge)(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue),四大(da)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)累計(ji)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)12.7%,環比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降3%,大(da)于上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)將近1個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。

 近期房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)場持(chi)續(xu)低迷,但中(zhong)央(yang)對樓(lou)市(shi)調控的(de)決心(xin)堅定不(bu)搖。截(jie)至(zhi)目前,今年(nian)實施限購令的(de)46個(ge)城市(shi)中(zhong),已有北京(jing)(jing)、廣州、深圳、上(shang)(shang)海、青島、濟南(nan)、福州、長春(chun)、廈門、太原等至(zhi)少10個(ge)城市(shi)明確表示將(jiang)在(zai)明年(nian)繼續(xu)執(zhi)行限購政(zheng)策。在(zai)限購繼續(xu)的(de)同(tong)時(shi),房(fang)產(chan)稅試點明年(nian)也可能進(jin)一步擴大。12月21日,據中(zhong)國指(zhi)數(shu)研究院提供的(de)數(shu)據顯示,今年(nian)受調控政(zheng)策影響,全(quan)國住宅用地(di)量價(jia)全(quan)面下行,北京(jing)(jing)、上(shang)(shang)海等重點城市(shi)降幅更為顯著。作為和房(fang)地(di)產(chan)緊(jin)密相關的(de)鋼鐵(tie)行業,房(fang)地(di)產(chan)市(shi)場的(de)低迷對鋼材(cai)市(shi)場需求將(jiang)形(xing)成直接影響。

 資金方(fang)面,12月(yue)20日(ri)央行發行260億(yi)元(yuan)1年期央票(piao),12月(yue)22日(ri)發行10億(yi)元(yuan)3月(yue)期票(piao)據(ju),由(you)于(yu)上(shang)周(zhou)公(gong)開(kai)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)到期資金僅(jin)有170億(yi)元(yuan),公(gong)開(kai)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)上(shang)周(zhou)仍然(ran)實現(xian)(xian)凈(jing)回(hui)籠資金100億(yi)元(yuan)。這是央行連續第四周(zhou)在公(gong)開(kai)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)凈(jing)回(hui)籠資金,累計凈(jing)回(hui)籠資金量達到2080億(yi)元(yuan)。臨近年末,銀行開(kai)始逐漸收緊閘(zha)門(men),部分銀行基本(ben)已無新增貸(dai)款可放,市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)資金再(zai)度出現(xian)(xian)緊張(zhang)局面。

 據數(shu)據顯示,12月20日(ri)滬大額銀行承兌匯票月貼現(xian)率為(wei)7.70‰,較(jiao)12月15日(ri)回落0.13%,但中介市場(chang)承兌匯票月貼現(xian)率達到7.25‰,較(jiao)12月15日(ri)上升1.54%。
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